Look at the following graphic:

George Will, in many of his recent essays, has become an ever louder global warming "nay-sayer." He, like a number of my conservative acquaintances, insist that global warming is a fraud, perpetuated by a liberal cabal of wackos who want to destroy America. Will, in his latest posting, claimed that 1998 was the "hottest year," but that temperatures have been declining ever since. But a closer examination of the data tells a somewhat different story.



Notice, in the graphic, that a short, and relatively small, cooling trend took place from 1991 - 1993. That was in response to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillipines in 1991. In 1998 there was a large peak in the opposite direction. This was in response to the 1998 El Nino. And, of course, 1998 is the year that global-warming deniers pin their hats on. They claim that it has been getting cooler since then. That is incorrect. Even removing those two events from the graphic doesn't make any difference in the long term trend. And it is that long term trend that matters.

Notice that the average temperature wandered above and below the zero degree mark from around 1979 until 1993 (that's because that period was chosen as the benchmark period - it is even more graphic if you look at the data since 1890). But the temperature since 1993 has run above and below a higher temperature by around 0.2 degrees (Centigrade). That doesn't seem like much, but the effect is much higher at the high latitudes (above, say, 60 degrees North Latitude). Which is why the Greenland Ice Cap is melting so much faster than scientists anticipated. It is also why the Arctic Ocean ice is disappearing in the summer months - something that has not happened in the last 150,000 years or so from all indications. And, since higher elevation act like higher latitudes, it is why the California snow pack is melting too early for the animals that depend upon it (including the human animal).

The problem with this kind of temperature increase is that it feeds upon itself in a positive feedback loop. It gets warmer so more water and rock are exposed, which do not reflect heat the way ice does. So then it gets warmer and even more water and rock are exposed, making the effect build upon itself. Scientists speak about trip points in this kind of action, in which a point is reached when "the system" snaps to a new stability - in this case at an even higher temperature than has been proposed before now (previously in the 3 - 5 degree range). No one knows what this new temperature regime will look like, but figures of 6 - 9 degrees Celsius are being discussed. At that point, there is a real chance that ALL of the ice sheets on the planet will melt and the oceans rise by several dozens of feet (before the present Ice Age, the oceans were about 200 feet higher). Most animal life will suffer enormously, since the time to effect evolutionary change is too long to respond to the rapid temperature changes we might yet see.

The global-warming deniers do themselves and humanity no good service by fighting this issue. The science is solid and becoming more certain every month. There is NO chance that some unknown phenomena will come along to recuse us from ourselves. We made this problem with our industrial revolution, the transportation revolution, and our continuing abuse of our environment. The claim that "jobs will be lost" is a "red herring," since the new "green revolution" will create more and better jobs around the globe. At least the Chinese think so, for they are beginning to commit to making major investments in green technology and industry. They are out to "eat our lunch." With people like George Will resisting and impeding change, they may well do it.

Sweet dreams and God Bless. TAD+